-LRB- CNN -RRB- -- The federal government has shut down for the first time since 1996 and all eyes are focused on House Speaker John Boehner . Will he continue to insist upon tying a repeal or delay of Obamacare to a funding bill ? Or will he bring the Senate-passed funding bill to the House floor and hope that he can convince 17 Republicans to join hands with the chamber 's 200 Democrats and vote to re-open the federal government ?

It all depends on whether he chooses to follow or ignore the Hastert Rule . The choice is n't an easy one , as his speakership quite likely hangs in the balance .

The Hastert Rule is named after former Speaker Dennis Hastert , who did not bring bills to the floor unless those bills were supported by a majority of House Republicans . It is not a formal rule , but rather a promise to uphold the will of a majority of the majority . House Republicans expected Boehner to uphold the rule and he pledged to do so .

But the shutdown and the upcoming showdown over raising the debt limit underscore Boehner 's leadership dilemma -- almost any bill that a majority of House Republicans support is dead on arrival in the Democratic-controlled Senate .

Fewer laws were passed in the last Congress than in any Congress since 1861 , and based on the number of floor votes taken so far this year , the current Congress is on track to be even less productive . It is also the most partisan Congress since the Civil War era .

As the shutdown gets under way , many are looking for signs of what kind of leader Boehner will be . Instead , they should consider what kind of leader he can be , given the political hand he 's been dealt .

Gone are the days of House speakers plying members with promises of pork and campaign money . Earmarks have been banned , most incumbents do their own fundraising , and for many of the chamber 's newer members , ideology trumps party loyalty .

The electoral landscape does n't help . In 1995-96 , when the federal government last shut down , 34 % of House Republicans represented districts that Bill Clinton won in 1992 . Today , just 7 % of House Republicans come from districts that President Obama won last year . There is almost no electoral incentive for these members to compromise . The bottom line is that Boehner 's arsenal is limited . He is hamstrung by the very institution and members he is supposed to lead .

So what are Boehner 's options at this point ? He could , as he has done previously , pass a funding bill on the backs of House Democrats . The 2011 and 2012 omnibus spending bills , the 2011 Budget Control Act , and the 2012 Payroll Tax Bill all passed the House because of Democratic support . And earlier this year , Boehner brought the Violence Against Women Act and the Hurricane Sandy Relief bill to the floor , despite opposition from a majority of House Republicans . These bills had bipartisan support in the Senate , making it difficult for Boehner to dig his heels in and stand behind his conservative majority .

Flash forward to now . What is the House speaker 's calculus , given that the Senate passed its funding bill on a party-line vote ?

Absent the pressure to appease Republican senators , Boehner will have a tough time justifying any move to defy the will of his party 's majority . Convincing House Republicans to pass the Senate 's funding bill and re-open the federal government will require him to lead in a way that may not be possible , should he wish to remain speaker .

No House speaker wants to go down in history for a legislative record opposed by the majority of his or her own party . And no speaker wants to go down in history for presiding over one of the most unproductive Congresses in history . But these are Boehner 's choices .

While Hastert relied on a majority of the majority , Boehner has had to rely on a minority of the majority , together with a majority of the minority , to pass important legislation . The `` Boehner Rule '' is hardly the stuff to which great leaders aspire . It may , however , prove more productive than following the lead of his majority .

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Marian Currinder and Josh Huder .

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The federal government has shut down for the first time since 1996

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Marian Currinder , Josh Huder : What will House Speaker John Boehner do ?

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They say as Boehner faces tough choices , his Speakership hangs in the balance

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Currinder , Huder : Will he rely on a minority of the majority of his party to pass bill ?